H1 2026 commentary
We review a first half marked by strong cat bond issuance, spread moderation, and a relatively benign loss period, and discuss why we remain constructive on the sector’s role in long-term portfolio diversification.
H2 2025 commentary
We discuss the fund’s record of zero impairments through the 2025 California wildfires and Hurricane Melissa, record cat bond issuance for the year, and why we believe our more conservative, more remote trigger approach can win over time by losing less along the way.
Q2 2026 commentary
We review a second quarter shaped by continued geopolitical volatility and a hawkish leadership transition at the Federal Reserve, and discuss why a difficult quarter for our rules-based process does not change our view of the fund’s long-term rationale.
Q1 2026 commentary
We walk through a volatile first quarter for Treasuries, driven by the outbreak of conflict with Iran and a sharp spike in oil prices, and discuss how the fund’s duration-focused, model-based approach navigated the resulting swings in rates.
Perspectives
Forward Rate Bias
We look at forward rate bias — the tendency of implied forward rates to overestimate future spot rates — and how a persistent, if modest, edge can be harvested using short-dated interest rate futures.
Scaling Accuracy
We work through the math connecting trading frequency to required win rate, showing why a monthly strategy needs higher accuracy than an equivalent weekly one to produce similar results.
Perspectives
Compounding Edge
Using a simple thought experiment on volatility drag, we show why smaller, more consistent position sizes tend to compound better over time than larger, variable ones, even when the average return is identical.
Perspectives
Trend Detection
We explain how simple moving averages and their slopes can help identify rising, falling, and flat interest rate regimes, and how that framework can inform duration positioning.
Perspectives · As of 12/31/2025
Introduction to Cat Bonds
We explain what cat bonds are, why re/insurers use them, and how diversifying across largely unrelated perils can shape a portfolio’s risk and return profile.
Hurricane Milton: a live cat event case study
We walk through how Hurricane Milton unfolded, how we priced the fund’s portfolio during a live cat event using model-based loss estimates, and why we believe the fund’s more conservative approach was reflected in a smaller drawdown than the Index over the same period.